Research note 008 / Texas grid

Texas was asked to plug in 475 GW of big new loads, five times its record demand

ERCOT’s count of loads of 75 MW or more asking to connect to the Texas grid, April 2022 to June 2026, against the grid’s all-time peak, with the state’s August pause and ERCOT’s first sorting of the requests. Sources read October 24, 2026.

474.7 gigawatts of new load had asked to connect to the Texas grid by June 2026, and ERCOT counted about 90% of it as data centres. The most power the grid has ever served at once is 91.2 GW, set on July 22, 2026. The requests add up to 5.2 times that record.

A request is not demand. It is a project asking its utility and ERCOT to study a connection, counted at its full requested size. In June 2026 about 284 GW of the total had no studies submitted. By September 2026 ERCOT had approved 9.5 GW of the loads to connect; added together, their individual monthly peaks came to 4.1 GW.

01 / The full view

Requests rose 27-fold while the record peak rose 22%

The line follows ERCOT’s own headline count, one selected figure per source document, from the first snapshot of its interim large-load process on April 26, 2022. The December 2024 total is a later ERCOT Monthly restatement. The step line joins selected annual snapshots of the grid’s all-time peak demand: 74.8 GW from 2019, then records of 80.1 GW in July 2022, 85.5 GW in August 2023 and 91.2 GW on July 22, 2026. Intermediate records within those years are omitted.

Figure 1

Large loads asking to connect, against the grid’s all-time peak

gigawatts
01002003004005002022202320242025202691.2 GW91.2 GW474.7 GW474.7 GW01002003004005002022202320242025202691.2 GW91.2 GW474.7 GW474.7 GW
  • All-time peak demand record
  • Requests to connect (ERCOT count)
ERCOT’s headline count of loads of 75 MW or more seeking to connect, one figure per document; the end-2024 point is ERCOT’s restated figure. The count is of requests, not load in service. Peak: selected annual demand-record snapshots; intermediate records within a year are omitted. The latest record is 91,155 MW on July 22, 2026, on final settlement. The dashed rule marks the August 3, 2026 pause.
02 / Three phases

Flat, then a climb, then a wall

From September 2022 through June 2024 the count held between about 36 and 44 GW. In February 2023 a separate survey of the grid’s utilities found 35.7 GW of crypto-mining and data-centre load under study.

From mid-2024 it climbed: 47.9 GW in July 2024, 63 GW at the end of 2024, 156 GW in June 2025 and 232.5 GW in January 2026. In the first quarter of 2026 ERCOT received 198 new requests; the count reached 410.6 GW on March 26 and 474.7 GW in June.

ERCOT changed the chart’s horizon along the way. From July 2024 projects without an in-service date were given December 31, 2028; the 2025 charts run through in-service year 2030. Beginning with the March 2026 Monthly Operational Overview, some charts run through 2033, adding about 10 to 32 GW. The March 26 point shown here is through 2030; counted through 2030, June 2026 was 463.1 GW.

03 / The pause and the sorting

The state paused hookups, and ERCOT left 302 GW out of its first batch

On August 3, 2026, Governor Greg Abbott ordered a “comprehensive verification and audit” of every data centre in the queue. The same day ERCOT stopped its Batch Zero classification and paused approvals to energize data centres and crypto-mining sites of 75 MW or more. On September 21 the governor told the state’s environmental agency to halt data-centre permits until the audit is done.

On September 3 ERCOT sent utilities conditional classifications for Batch Zero, the first batch under its new process: 66.4 GW from 204 projects as base load, which ERCOT plans for, and 125.4 GW from 158 projects as studied load, which needs further study. Another 302.2 GW from 373 projects was not included; most had no qualifying study by July 10, and they are deferred to later batches, not withdrawn.

Figure 2

ERCOT’s first sorting of the requests, September 2026

gigawatts
66.4 GWBase load204 projects125.4 GWStudied load158 projects302.2 GW (61%)Not included373 projects66.4 GWBase load204 projects125.4 GWStudied load158 projects302.2 GW (61%)Not included373 projects
Conditional Batch Zero classifications sent to utilities on September 3, 2026. Base and studied load are 2032 values; ERCOT does not state the year basis of the 302.2 GW. ERCOT’s eligibility verification report is due December 10, 2026; final classifications are expected in December.

The sorting covers 494.0 GW, 19.3 GW more than the June count. The two were taken on different dates and horizons, and Batch Zero counts already energized loads at their 2032 size; ERCOT publishes no reconciliation, so this note does not construct one.

The classifications are contested. Four data-centre developers have filed complaints with the Public Utility Commission of Texas over moves from base to studied load, and on October 23 the Commission’s staff said it expects 12 to 20 more.

04 / What the count is

A queue of requests, not a forecast of demand

  • It counts every load of 75 MW or more in ERCOT’s large-load process at its full requested size, including loads already energized or approved to energize.
  • None of the ERCOT documents read says the total is de-duplicated across sites; a developer can file the same capacity at several sites or with several utilities.
  • It leaves out loads under 75 MW and generation, which has a queue of its own.
  • The data-centre share is ERCOT’s pie chart: 90.2%, or 420.8 GW, in June 2026.
05 / Every charted total

Twelve totals from ERCOT’s documents

Table 1 / Every charted queue total December snapshots without a stated day are plotted on December 15; June 2026 is plotted on June 1. These positions do not assert observation days. “Read from chart image” identifies totals read from a slide’s embedded data table.
As ofGWWhat ERCOT countedSource
Apr 26, 202217.4Tracked large-load projects of 75 MW or more, standalone and co-located; includes operational and approved loads.ERCOT (LFLTF LLI status update, 2022-08-22)
Dec 202236.3Tracked large-load projects of 75 MW or more, standalone and co-located; includes operational and approved loads.ERCOT (LFLTF LLI status update, 2023-04-12)
Dec 11, 202339.2Tracked large-load projects of 75 MW or more, standalone and co-located; includes operational and approved loads.ERCOT (LFLTF LLI status update, 2023-12-11)
Jul 8, 202447.9Tracked large-load projects of 75 MW or more, standalone and co-located; includes operational and approved loads.ERCOT (LFLTF LLI status update, 2024-07-08)
Dec 2024 (restated)63Large loads of 75 MW or more seeking interconnection; ERCOT’s restated December 2024 total.ERCOT (ERCOT Monthly, November 2025 issue)
Apr 7, 2025108.3Large loads of 75 MW or more seeking interconnection, including energized and approved loads; through in-service year 2030. Read from chart image.ERCOT (Board, System Planning & Weatherization Update, Apr 7-8 2025)
Jun 2, 2025156Large loads of 75 MW or more seeking interconnection, including energized and approved loads; through in-service year 2030.ERCOT (Board, System Planning & Weatherization Update, Jun 23-24 2025; also MOO May 2025)
Sep 2, 2025189Large loads of 75 MW or more seeking interconnection, including energized and approved loads; through in-service year 2030.ERCOT (Board, System Planning & Weatherization Update, Sep 22-23 2025)
Nov 18, 2025226Large loads of 75 MW or more seeking interconnection, including energized and approved loads; through in-service year 2030.ERCOT (Board, System Planning & Weatherization Update, Dec 8-9 2025)
Jan 20, 2026232.5Large loads of 75 MW or more seeking interconnection, including energized and approved loads; through in-service year 2030. Read from chart image.ERCOT (Board, Interconnection & Grid Analysis Update, Feb 9-10 2026)
Mar 26, 2026410.6Large loads of 75 MW or more seeking interconnection, including energized and approved loads; through in-service year 2030. Read from chart image.ERCOT (Senate Business & Commerce testimony 2026-04-01; Board 2026-04-20/21); ERCOT (Senate Business & Commerce testimony, 2026-04-01)
Jun 2026474.7Large loads of 75 MW or more seeking interconnection, including energized and approved loads; through in-service year 2033. Read from chart image.ERCOT (Senate Business & Commerce testimony, Pablo Vegas, 2026-07-29)

Peak demand records

Table 2 / Peak demand records Selected annual record snapshots; intermediate records within a year are omitted. The 2026 value is on final settlement.
DateMWSource
Aug 12, 201974,820ERCOT (archived 2022 peak records)
Jul 20, 202280,148ERCOT (all-time peak demand records)
Aug 10, 202385,508ERCOT (all-time peak demand records)
Jul 22, 202691,155ERCOT (Demand and Energy 2026, final settlement)

Batch Zero, September 3, 2026

Table 3 / Batch Zero, September 3, 2026 Conditional classifications. Base and studied load are 2032 values; ERCOT does not state the year basis of the 302.2 GW. Source: ERCOT (PUC Project No. 59142, item 55, filed September 11, 2026)
ClassGWProjects
Base load66.4204
Studied load125.4158
Not included302.2373
Total494.0735
06 / How we compiled this

Sources and method

Every charted queue total is from an ERCOT document: task-force status updates (2022–2024), board decks (2025–2026), Texas Senate testimony (2026) and an ERCOT Monthly restatement of December 2024. Several totals appear only in chart images; for those we read the data table embedded in the slide, and the table says so. Where documents disagree we follow the choices listed in the research notes, such as 63 GW for the end of 2024, which ERCOT gives only in retrospect.

ERCOT’s June pie-chart labels of 90.2% and 420.8 GW do not reconcile with its 474.7 GW headline total; we retain the labels as reported.

The peak is from ERCOT’s Demand and Energy 2026 workbook, which ERCOT names as the place for current official records; its records page still shows a preliminary 91,089 MW. Batch Zero is from ERCOT’s September 11, 2026 filing in Public Utility Commission of Texas Project No. 59142. ERCOT is named only as the source; it has not reviewed or endorsed this note.

References

  1. ERCOT — February 17, 2023 large-load status update.
  2. ERCOT — March 2026 Monthly Operational Overview.
  3. ERCOT — June 2026 Interconnection and Grid Analysis Update.
  4. Governor of Texas — August 3, 2026 data-centre audit directive.
  5. ERCOT — August 3, 2026 Batch Zero market notice.
  6. ERCOT — September 3, 2026 conditional classification notice.
  7. ERCOT — September 11, 2026 Batch Zero filing, PUC Project No. 59142, item 55.
  8. ERCOT — September 2026 Batch Zero board update.
  9. Governor of Texas — September 21, 2026 data-centre permit directive.
  10. Public Utility Commission of Texas — Commission Staff’s October 23, 2026 motion.
  11. ERCOT — September 2026 Monthly Operational Overview.
  12. ERCOT — Demand and Energy 2026, July final settlement.
  13. ERCOT — all-time peak demand records.
  14. ERCOT — July 8, 2024 large-load status update.

Cite and reuse

Cite this: tokenusage.dev. “Texas was asked to plug in 475 GW of big new loads, five times its record demand.” Research note 008, Oct 26, 2026. https://tokenusage.dev/publications/oct-26-ercot-large-load-queue

Download: Every charted queue total (CSV).

These CSV files are tokenusage.dev’s compilation, licensed under CC BY 4.0: reuse them, commercially or not, with credit to tokenusage.dev, a link to this note and the licence, and a note of any changes. Figures from other sources keep their sources’ rights. The licence does not cover rows left out of the files, or the article text, charts or images.